The days of the AL East being a meat grinder are over. The payroll gap continues to get bigger between, well everyone in the AL East and Tampa Bay. Everyone is spending pretty feely or have while the Rays are still trying to win the only way they can. Each team in this division has about two redeeming strengths and one giant wart. Whoever can hide that wart the most over the 162 game season is going to win the division. It might not be the toughest division in baseball, but there’s enough talent throughout that any team has a chance to win it.
Toronto Blue Jays
What’s not to like: Marcus Stroman take over as the staff ace after a dominant comeback late in 2015 after tearing his ACL in spring training. The lineup will have Troy Tulowitzki for a full season, or whatever amount of games he manages to play. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are in walk years, which generally means good things, especially for hitters of their caliber. The addition of Drew Storen lengthens the bullpen and they do have the reining AL MVP. That’s always nice.
Yeah, but: They’re sure banking on last year’s Marco Estrada (126 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP) and not the one he was from 2008-14 (over 4.00 ERA and allowed 29 HR in 2014). His FIP (4.40) was over a run higher than his ERA last year (3.13). R.A Dickey was good in the second half but is aging. Can J.A. Happ carry over whatever fairy dust Ray Searage and the Pirates sprinkled on his left arm (1.85 ERA in 11 starts 69K in 63.1 IP). Probably not very likely Chris Colabello puts up a .900 OPS again.
X-Factor: The Blue Jays got by on the same kind of rotation a year ago until David Price was acquired to help pick them up. If Stroman can truly be an ace (career high 130 innings), that would give the Blue Jays a good shot in a division that doesn’t have a ton of great starting pitching outside of Tampa Bay.
Best case: The offense and bullpen are good enough to make an average rotation stand up to win the division or compete for a wild card spot.
Worst case: Stroman can’t handle the work load, Dickey continues to decline, Happ and Estrada fall back to career norms and they finish in last.
New York Yankees
What’s not to like: Even with a 30-game suspension of Aroldis Chapman, this bullpen is lethal. It features the only three relievers that struck out 100 batters last season. That shouldn’t be an issue again this season. They’re going to need that bullpen to help prop up a rotation with inconsistencies and injury issues. Alex Rodriguez proved he had something left in the tank last season. Their infield defense should be even better when they upgraded second base with Starlin Castro. Luis Severino lived up to the hype when called up a year ago to give the starting rotation a big second half push.
Yeah, but: As they say, father time is undefeated. Is Jacoby Ellsbury starting to hit a decline? The outfield defense with he, Carlos Beltran and Brett Gardner doesn’t seem as good as it used to. Teixeria, despite a nice resurgence in power, is older. As is Rodriguez. Mashiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia all have injury concerns. There’s not even a guarantee Sabathia makes the rotation. The lineup is capable of producing, but all depending on age.
X-Factor: Any one injury to a regular could be enough to derail this team. If Tanaka misses significant time, the already iffy rotation takes a serious hit.
Best case: Health would have to be implied to any scenario and team, but especially the Yankees. Ellsbury bounces back, Tanaka, Pineda and Severino all throw 175 innings or more. There’s enough talent, if healthy, to win the division.
Worst case: Injuries continue to plague Tanaka and Pineda. Ellsbury continues to decline. Rodriguez doesn’t have enough for a comeback encore and Severino can’t handle the next step in innings. The have enough age where if injuries become a factor, they could finish in the basement.
Baltimore Orioles
What’s not to like: They hit 217 homers a year ago. 250 isn’t out of the question this year. It’s easy to imagine Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado and Pedro Alvarez all hitting at least 30 home runs. Matt Wieters and Jonathan Schoop could each hit 20. They paid a steep price, but they retained Darren O’Day to keep the underrated bullpen intact. Machado is really, really fun to watch. Given the amount of talk dedicated to Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, he’s really underrated.
Yeah, but: Ubaldo Jimenez…pitched last year. He definitely pitched. That’s, uh something. Yovanni Gallardo is a downgrade from Wei-Yin Chen. The yo-yo of Kevin Gasuman has stunted his development. Chris Tillman was pretty much bad from every possible number. The Orioles have done a good job over the Buck Showalter era of winning with an average rotation This rotation doesn’t really seem average anymore. Machado and Davis can take their walks, but they were 12th in the league as a team in OBP. Adding Trumbo and Alvarez isn’t going to help that. What are the odds that hitting 250 home runs as a team leads to less than 500 runs? Also, where are those two going to wear a glove? Their outfield defense suddenly looks pretty hairy.
X-Factor: Gallardo did a nice job adjusting to the loss of velocity, pitching in the AL in a tough ballpark in Texas. He’s pitching in another hitter friendly environment in a division that features some pretty good hitters. He’ll need to repeat that performance to help glue this rotation together.
Best case: Jimenez has shown in the past he can be a pretty good pitcher in stretches. 2013 and ’14 Tillman was good. If that happens and Gallardo continues to adapt, they’ll score enough runs to make them a threat to be a wild card team. The rest of the division has its warts, so they could certainly stay in the division hunt. Somehow Showalter gets more out of this team than anyone ever thinks possible.
Worst case: Home runs are plentiful but so are strikeouts. Coupled with a bad rotation, that equals a lot of 9-7 losses. Trying to fit Trumbo and Alvarez into right field goes about as expected. Even on its best day, their rotation is likely the worst in the division, so they could fluctuate from wild card contender to last place.
Tampa Bay Rays
What’s not to like: Hating Chris Archer is like hating 70 degree and sunny weather. He’s fun to watch on and off the field. Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi and Erasmo Ramirez are above average arms following him. Matt Moore should continue to start to come back all the way. Alex Cobb, who might be better than everyone just listed, should be back in the second half. Kevin Kiemaier could probably catch a paperclip dropped from the Empire State building.
Yeah, but: They’re really counting on every hitter to just be above average offensively. Not impossible, but this offense could go into prolonged offensive droughts. They can win a lot 2-1, 3-2 games, but if they have to get into the four or five run range consistently, that won’t go well. Brad Boxberger’s injury shuffles the bullpen big time.
X-Factor: Evan Longoria is the big bopper in the lineup. If he has the kind of season he’s capable of, it makes everyone in the lineup’s job easier.
Best case: They get enough offense from everyone. The bullpen survives two months without Boxberger. Cobb comes back dominant and this rotation carries them to a division title. They should have the best rotation in the division.
Worst case: Outside of Evan Longoria, this team doesn’t have a ton of hitters that have been big run producers. If they can’t get about 10 homers from seven or eight guys outside of him, they’re going to be on the losing end of those 2-1, 3-2 games. If the bullpen can’t hang in there long enough until Boxberger is back, the rotation doesn’t matter as much. The rotation should be good enough to keep them out of last place.
Boston Red Sox
What’s not to like: Mookie Betts is just scratching the surface of all that talent and charisma. David Price has plenty of experience pitching in the AL East. David Ortiz has showed no signs of slowing down. Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances is pretty good but Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Carson Smith aren’t exactly slouches. Hanley Ramirez can’t be any worse at first base than he was in left field.
Yeah, but: Clay Bucholz has proven two things in his career. He’s talented as any pitcher in baseball. And he’s inconsistent. Sliding him into the number two spot could help but Rick Porcello and Joe Kelly don’t really convince you that this rotation can stack up behind Price well. Eduardo Rodriguez is talented but young and hurt in camp. Pablo Sandoval might be a really, really expensive bench player.
X-Factor: If Bucholz can put a full season together, he bumps the rotation up that much more. If not, there’s no one really dependable behind Price.
Best case: Bucholz does show more flashes of brilliance than usual. Porcello takes a step forward from last year. Sandoval and Ramirez aren’t lost causes. Pedroia stays healthy and continues the solid season he was off to before getting hurt in 2015. Price is worth the money and they win the division.
Worst case: Price will be worth the money. But will he get a chance to prove that his postseason numbers aren’t indicative of what he can do in the postseason? If Sandoval and Ramirez are sunk costs, Pedroia continues to break down and Ortiz’s last year isn’t smooth performance or health wise, they could finish in fourth place.
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POSTED 03/25/2016 16:06
Lake County Sentinel
2016 American League East Preview By Justin Lada
