2016 National League East Preview By Justin Lada
The Washington Nationals were written in pen by some to win the World Series right after they signed Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper was ready to give his ring size just in case. Somewhere between that interview and fighting with Jonathan Papelbon on the top step of the dugout, the Nationals didn’t quite meet expectations. Despite signing Scherzer, the New York Mets rotation and addition of Yoenis Cepedes was enough to combat an unanimous MVP season by Harper. The Miami Marlins had some hype which ended in the usual fashion. The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies were busy buying 2017 and 2018 calendars. This year has a chance to be more of the same with the Nationals hoping to have more of a pulse on the division.
New York Mets
What’s not to like: Matt Harvey could potentially be the third best pitcher on his team and still content for a Cy Young award. Or Jacob DeGrom or Noah Syndergaard. This rotation is that good. Good enough that if they only get 150 innings out of rookie Steven Matz, who might be a second or third starter on some teams, and would be the ace on the Phillies, that this rotation will still be dominant. Bartolo Colon is as good as a fifth starter as you’d want and at some point Zack Wheeler will come back and that will really just be gravy. Adding Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker is a big upgrade over Daniel Murphy. They brought Cespedes back and the outfield actually looks formidable again.
Yeah, but: The bullpen could be a little better. Jeurys Familia continues to improve into a dominant closer. Adison Reed isn’t exactly a sure thing as a setup man. They’ve resisted the temptation to use Rafael Montero in the bullpen. It’s possible Colon or Wheeler could move to the bullpen once Wheeler is back, which would help. But if a bullpen piece is all they need to add at some point this season, there’s not much to quibble about. No, Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and Walker don’t make up the most rangy middle infielder. David Wright’s health is still an issue. As is Travis d’Arnaud. But they made it through last season with most of the same issues and lost in the last game of the season.
X-Factor: Cespedes transformed the offense with his arrival. So much so that there was legitimate talk that was worthy of NL MVP votes. Somehow, his market never developed and teams didn’t meet his demands. So he came back to the Mets with two year deal with the rare opt out after one year. If he plays like he did with the Mets down the stretch for a full season, he’ll certainly cash in, maybe with a World Series ring in hand.
Best case: The rotation pitches maybe even better than it did a year ago. Cespedes is motivated and wants to cash in this offseason and plays like it. They add a bullpen piece and they get back to the World Series.
Worst case: There were issues with Harvey’s workload a year ago. Even though he’s further out from tommy john now, it could crop up. If Matz can’t handle a full workload and Colon begins to age, there might be some rotation depth questions. The middle infield defense can’t outhit their iffy range and this team has a hard time finding enough consistency to win the division. If they don’t do that, with how top heavy the NL is, a wild card berth could be tough.
Washington Nationals
What’s not to like: Harper had a ridiculous breakout season in 2015. And he won’t be 24 until October. Stephen Strasburg came back late in the season and was dominant, looking like his injury issues were behind him. Scherzer was worth the money and it looks like prospects Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito will be ready to have an impact at some point in 2016.
Yeah, but: It sounds like Harper and Papelbon’s issues are behind them. But the rotation doesn’t sound as good as it did a year ago. Tanner Roark, who was seen as a luxury spot starter/reliever a year ago, didn’t have a great year. Joe Ross came up and was good, but now the Nationals need to count on Roark and Ross for a full season. Dusty Baker is going to try to use Danny Espinosa at shortstop. This is probably Dusty’s last stop and shot as a manager. Hopefully for his sake, he doesn’t bank on that working out long term. Jayson Weth is owed a lot of money and spends a lot of time in the trainer’s room. Same for Ryan Zimmerman.
X-Factor: A number of things kind of keep this team glued together. Health can be implied to any team. Daniel Murphy at second base will be a key because this lineup needs a decent left handed bat to balance out the right handed heaviness despite having Harper.
Best case: Ben Revere is healthier than Denard Span was a year ago and sets the table. They get 120 games from Anthony Rendon, Zimmerman. Wilson Ramos and Jayson Weth play over 100 games. There’s no chemistry issues from last year’s team. Dusty Baker doesn’t pitch Strasburg and Scherzer until the groundskeeper’s have to scrape their ligaments off of the rubber and they contend for the division.
Worst case: Strasburg’s health issues are back. So are Zimmerman’s, Rendon’s and Werth. The team still can’t get along. The rotation behind Scherzer and even a healthy Strasburg can’t find consistency and they settle for another second place finish, maybe even third if the new Marlins coaching staff spices thing up in South Beach.
Miami Marlins
What’s not to like: Every Giancarlo Stanton at bat is must-see TV. As are Jose Fernandez’s starts. Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds make this team even more interesting. Adam Conley has been an under-told nice story. Wei-Yin Chen is a nice addition to the bullpen. Justin Bour was interesting last year. It looks like Dee Gordon has cemented himself as an All-Star caliber talent.
Yeah, but: Marcell Ozuna appeared to have conditioning/effort issues and the Marlins still have issues running a team, mainly looking at service time. Stanton still keeps getting weird injuries. Fernandez was a little shaky in his comeback last year. Premier back-end bullpen arm Cater Capps is already out for the season. Christian Yelich is a solid to exciting player, but it looks like that power just might never be there.
X-Factor: If Fernandez can take the next step forward in his comeback, this rotation could be pretty solid. Those with injury issues need to play more games, but if Fernandez pitches 150-170 ace quality innings, this team has a chance to make the division race very interesting.
Best case: Fernandez does flash back. Chen winds up fitting perfectly into this ballpark. Stanton plays a full season. There’s no issues, whatever they were, with Ozuna. The Marlins find a way to make up for the loss of Capps and they stay in the division race deep into the season.
Worst case: Fernandez still gets back to normal at a slow rate and is inconsistent. Stanton still can’t play more than 100 games. The Bonds as a coach experiment goes awry and moving the fences is doesn’t go as planned. Which results in still finishing no lower than third place, beause…
Philadelphia Phillies
What’s not to like: J.P Crawford might be up at some point this season. This year’s draft class is shaping up to be solid. They are on track to partake heavily in next year’s as well. Maikel Franco has been putting on a show in spring training. Cesar Hernandez is a bit underrated as a solid second basemen. I thought finding positives for the Phillies was going to be much tougher than this.
Yeah, but: Jeremy Hellickson is going to be their Opening Day starter. I think that alone makes enough of a case to be an ugly season. Andrew Bailey has gotten some nice reports this spring, but the Phillies are counting on him to get, maybe 20 saves? They still have to pay Ryan Howard. Outside of Nola and Vincent Velasquez, the current rotation lacks upside or any excitement.
X-factor: I’m not sure if a team that could be fighting for the first overall pick in next year’s draft has an X-Factor, or needs one, but if Franco is the real deal at third base, he could still sell some tickets.
Best case: They call up Crawford at some point this year and he plays well. Nola and Velasquez are exciting and take steps forward. Bailey is healthy, pitches well and the Phillies sell him off for more prospects. They have some hope but still lose enough games to have a top five pick next year. That’s still a real, hope.
Worst case: If they do play too well, that actually might be a bad thing. They probably won’t call Crawford up early enough to make him a Super 2. Doing that would be a bad scenario for their long term future. Maybe Hellickson actually gets his ERA below 4.50 for the first time since 2012, but even if he does and that costs them some losses, they might be able to get a decent prospect if he does indeed pitch that well.
Atlanta Braves
What’s not to like: If you combined the Phillies offense and the Braves pitching, that team could contend for .500. Which isn’t anywhere near where either team wants to get really. In the real world, the Braves made some really, really good trades at the expense of the Diamondbacks. They have some pieces like Ender Inciarte, Jason Grilli and some other marginal vets that they might be able to trade for more prospects.
Yeah, but: There’s no real reason to try and argue what this team is. They’re a team that hopes to be bad enough to have the top pick next year. The NL has several teams that are trying to do the same thing that might even be worse than the Braves because the Braves are further along in the rebuilding process than those other teams. If Inciarte, AJ Pierzynski, Erick Aybar, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Jason Grilli aren’t good enough to sell off for more prospects, well, even that’s not the worst thing because that means they’re losing games and getting closer to the top pick next year.
X-Factor: Inciarte is probably their most tradable piece that they’ll likely trade. Julio Tehran and Freddie Freeman both have more value possibly, but so far the Braves have seemed reluctant to trade them. But if Inciarte plays well, the better the return they can get.
Best case: Some veterans play well enough to be sold off for some nice pieces. Do the Diamonbacks have any prospects left for the Braves to fleece from them? They are going all in on 2016 it seems, so maybe. Some veterans play bad enough to ensure they don’t win too many games. They get a taste of some younger players down the stretch to make 2017 look brighter.
Worse case: It would benefit them to be able to have some valuable veterans play well to get some advanced prospects in addition to a top five pick next year. If none of them do, that could slow down the rebuild a little bit. They’re still hoping they don’t have to hang onto players like Bourn and Swisher beyond this season. They could flip-flop with Miami and finish fourth. Another team ahead of them in the draft is definitely a worse scenario.
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POSTED 03/26/2016 16:27
Lake County Sentinel
