Lake County Sentinel
2016 American League West Preview By Justin Lada
The Houston Astros arrived maybe a year earlier than everyone expected and they didn’t even win the division. The Texas Rangers found some health, made some big moves and returned to the top of the division. The Seattle Mariners struggled to translate talent into wins again, leading to staff changes. Ditto for the Los Angeles Angels, who have even less talent now, even though they have the best player in the league, maybe baseball. It could be another two team race.
Texas Rangers
What’s not to like: They’ll have Cole Hamels for a full season after he adjusted to life in Globe Life Park and the American League. Prince Fielder rebounded. Shin-Soo Choo also had a nice season after a slow start. They won in spite of not having Yu Darvish and should have him back at some point mid-summer to bolster the rotation. After a slow start, Rougned Odor came back up, played well and is poised for a huge year. They still have Adrian Beltre, who did miss time with an injury, but still posted good numbers.
Yeah, but: They’re hoping Ian Desmond can fit into left field and they’d like to get something out of Josh Hamilton this year. Catching isn’t a great situation for them right now. Colby Lewis wasn’t good last year and they’re hoping AJ Griffin can rebound and give some production to the rotation out of the fifth spot. They’re going to try not to count on Darvish too much, but to win the division again, they might need them.
X-Factor: Desmond, Hamilton and Darvish. If one or two of the three can figure out a way to be productive or healthy, they can compete with the young and coming Astros.
Best case: Desmond takes to left field. Odor has the breakout year everyone thinks he’s going to have. Fielder can overcome his sleep apnea issues. They upgrade catcher at some point during the season and Darvish comes back to pitch some significant innings. If they do, another division title is realistic.
Worst case: Left field is not for Desmond, Hamilton and Darvish never make it back. Odor struggles again and Fielder needs surgery like Mike Napoli. Behind Hamels, Derek Holland gets hurt again and the rest of the rotation isn’t productive and could drop to fourth.
Houston Astros
What’s not to like: Carlos Correa and Dallas Keuchel turned into stars last year, winning the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young respectively. Jose Altuve is still a star. They traded for Ken Giles to shore up their weakest spot last year, power bullpen arms.
Yeah, but: Rookie Tyler White made the team likely as the first basemen, where Chris Carter was home run or strikeout a year ago. Evan Gattis is struggling with an injury and so is Lance McCullers Jr., who was looked at as the second starter behind Keuchel. Both Carlos Gomez and George Spring have had injury concerns.
X-Factor: Collin McHugh’s ERA rose over a run last year from 2014 despite winning 19 games. His FIP was slightly lower and his K/9 dropped from 9.14 to 7.56. If he can find a way to rebound a little bit back to 2014, the rotation would be more formidable.
Best case: McCullers’ injury isn’t a long term thing. Keuchel repeats 2015 or close to it. Adding Giles fortifies the back of the bullpen. Correa takes another big step and they claim the division.
Worst case: Correa has an unlikely sophomore slump. Keuchel can’t sustain his 2015. Nobody in the rotation can help out Keuchel and some of their platoons don’t work out, leading to maybe a third place finish.
Los Angeles Angels
What’s not to like: Mike Trout. But even then, more people would see him play if played on the east coast. Hector Santiago has developed into a reliable third starter. Andrelton Simmons is awesome defensively. Mike Trout. That’s really it right now. The rotation isn’t awful but not good enough to really compete.
Yeah, but: They do have that Mike Trout guy, but outside of Kole Calhoun and Albert Pujols, the lineup is pretty rough. Yunel Escobar had a decent year in 2015. CJ Cron can hit a little. Jered Weaver was throwing a 78mph fastball in spring training.
X-Factor: Hopefully Trout starts stealing bases again? Weaver finds 85 on the radar gun? Even if both happen, this is still probably a third place team.
Best case: Third place. There’s just not enough in this lineup even if Weaver helps to fill out the rotation again. Left field is a wasteland. Catcher and second base are no better.
Worst case: Trout gets hurt. That’s bad for everyone, not just them. But they might be a last place team if that happens. But to be fair, if everyone in baseball lost their best player, so would they.
Seattle Mariners
What’s not to like: Kyle Seager is pretty consistent. Even with a bit of a dip, Felix Hernanrez is still pretty good. Safeco Field didn’t hinder Nelson Cruz. Ketel Marte was pretty good when given a shot late in the season. After an illness, Robinson Cano was still pretty good.
Yeah, but: Leonys Martin strikeout rate went up four percent, walk rate down a percent. His on base percentage dropped and now the Mariners are hoping he can find it again while patrolling center at spacious Safeco. They “upgraded” catcher with Chris Ianetta. Felix lost some on his fastball last year. Taijuan Walker’s spring training was a desert mirage. Hisashi Iwakuma is back but lost his deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers because of an injury concern. They’re giving Steven Cishek the closer’s role. Not good, but they do have Joaquin Benoit as a safety net there.
X-Factor: Iwakuma pitching like he did a year ago would be a nice help to the team. Martin rebounding as well would be helpful as one of the major league leading among transactions the Mariners made in the offseason. Safeco Field seems like a good home for Wade Miley, who was one of those as well.
Best case: Felix is still Felix. Cano is a little better. Martin rebounds, Cruz keeps it up, Cishek doesn’t falter, making the bullpen stronger. Miley ends up being a good fit in Safeco and Walker finally figures it out. They could finish second or maybe third.
Worst case: Felix starts to decline a little more. Cishek blows up at closer. They continue to get no production from catcher. Iwakuma’s health issues are for real and they finish near last.
Oakland Athletics
What’s not to like: Sonny Gray is pretty good. Josh Reddick rebounded to have a nice 2015. Danny Valencia showed some signs of a breakout. For the first time, the Oakland A’s may not have a roster that’s sneaky good with the rest of the west. Most year’s they’re underrated, but this roster lacks a bit.
Yeah, but: Marcus Semien put up nice numbers offensively at shortstop but made 35 errors there. Rich Hill had a few good starts at the end of the year for Boston and now the Red Sox have him slotted to pitch behind Gray. Billy Butler had a bad first year of a 3 year/30mil contract. Sean Doolittle missed most of 2015 with injury issues.
X-Factor: If Hill can prove that late in his career, he’s a solid starter, it helps to lengthen the rotation a bit. Butler earning that 10mil a year would also be nice for them. Getting better range and hands from Semien would go a long way.
Best case: Hill is pretty good. Butler rebounds a little. Valencia shows he’s more than a platoon player. The duo of Doolittle and Ryan Madson stays healthy to form a tough back end of the bullpen. Semien gets better defensively and they avoid the basement in a top heavy division.
Worst case: The rotation behind Gray is as rough as it looks on paper. Semien has to be moved off of shortstop. Butler continues to struggle in a pitchers ballpark. Doolittle and Madson’s injury histories popup and they finish in last for the last time in a while.
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POSTED 03/31/2016 20:46
