Lake County Sentinel
2016 National League West Preview By Justin Lada
The National League West got turned upside down a little over the offseason. The San Francisco Giants were big spenders heading into an even year after missing the playoffs a year after winning the World Series in 2014. They took a chance on two pitchers that weren’t at their best in walk years last year. The Arizona Diamondbacks shocked everyone in baseball by outbidding for Zack Greinke after it was a foregone conclusion that he’d be back with the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Giants would snag him. The Diamondbacks kept the big offseason up by swinging a trade for Shelby Miller from Atlanta for another first round pick. The Dodgers got outbid for their second best starter who was the runner-up for the Cy Young last year. They almost signed Hisashi Iwakuma but backed out of that because of medical concerns. They ended up signing Scott Kazmir and Japanese import Kenta Maeda and not a ton else. They also backed out of a deal with Aroldis Chapman after his pending domestic charge. After having a loud offseason last year, the San Diego Padres traded away Craig Kimbrel and got John Jay for Jedd Gyroko. And not much else. The Colorado Rockies? They moved Corey Dickerson and added Gerardo Parra. And not much else.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What’s not to like: They still have the most dominant pitcher in baseball, which always counts for something. They have a new manager in Dave Roberts who is on the job for the first time. They’ll have Corey Seager at shortstop for a full season. Kenley Jansen is almost underrated as a reliever. They have nice pieces in Justin Turner and Scott Van Slyke. Joc Pederson had a great first half in his rookie year but was unplayable down the stretch. Still, he has enough talent to be an All-Star again if he can find some consistency.
Yeah, but: Yasiel Puig is talented but has a hard time either staying on the field or translating that talent into long-term performance. After Kershaw the rotation depth they thought they had, is crumbling. They weren’t counting on Hyun-Jin Ryu until late in the season anyway. Brandon McCarthy is recovering from tommy john. Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger went down in spring training. Kazmir’s velocity has been down this spring that has been the cause of some concern. Brandon Beachy is still hurt as well. Howie Kendrick and Seager have been hurt in spring training as well. Money doesn’t lead to health.
X-Factor: Anyone on the pitching staff not named Kershaw. There’s no guarantee what they’ll get out of starters behind Kershaw.
Best case: Kazmir pitches like he’s capable of. Maeda has a good first year in America. Puig puts it together finally. The new coaching staff is fresh air in Chavez Ravine and the Dodgers raise another division title banner.
Worst case: The rotation behind Kershaw can’t find any consistency. Puig continues to be more of a headache than a start. Pederson continues to be streaky and the injuries in spring training never allow them to get on track and finish in second or third.
San Francisco Giants
What’s not to like: Well, it’s an even year. If Clayton Kershaw is the best in the game, Madison Bumgarner is at the least, 1B. Bruce Bochy is one of the best managers in the game and a future Hall of Famer. They have the best hitting full-time catcher in baseball. They brought in Denard Span to shore up centerfield, a position they’ve kind of pieced together the last few years. On paper, the rotation with Bumgarner, Cueto, Jeff Samardjiza, Jake Peavey and Matt Cain is pretty good. Brandon Crawford had a big breakout year last year.
Yeah, but: Cueto had injury concerns last year and wasn’t very good for Kansas City. Samardjiza didn’t have a good year for the White Sox. Peavy is aging and had some rough stretches last year. Cain is trying to battle back from injuries the last few years. Span was hurt most of last year. Crawford’s HR/FB% jumped from 6.5% in 2014 to 16.2% last year en route to 21 homers, double his career high. That’s a number that isn’t a guarantee to repeat.
X-Factor: Cueto or Samardjiza will need to pitch worth the money they were paid. The Giants have some prospects that aren’t near ready and they do have Chris Heston to fill a spot if something goes wrong. But to do what they do in even years, Cueto and Samardjiza can’t be busts.
Best case: Cueto and Samardjiza take to their new, pitcher friendly digs. Span stabilizes centerfield. Crawford maintains his new found power to some extent. Some of the aging free agents in the bullpen keep it together another year and they win the division.
Worst case: If Cueto’s arm does finally have issues and Samardjiza’s 2015 was more indicative of future performance than a fluke, the back end of the rotation has a lot of questions that don’t have many solutions. They always seem to find a way, but if their depth keeps getting tested all season, second place could be coming and the Wild Card race is going to be pretty heated.
Arizona Diamondbacks
What’s not to like: They now have the NL Cy Young runner up and Shelby Miller as a 1-2 rotation punch. That pushes Patrick Corbin to third, Rubby De La Rosa to four and Robby Ray to five. That’s a solid rotation and they still have a few pitching prospects to choose from. Paul Goldschmidt would have been the NL MVP last year had Bryce Harper not gone off. AJ Pollock blossomed into a star. Their bullpen depth looks pretty good.
Yeah, But: They’re counting on getting production from the middle infield from Jean Segura at second, where he’s never played until this camp. They’re putting Nick Ahmed at shortstop. Jake Lamb wasn’t healthy last year but is a trendy breakout pick. Can Yasmany Tomas handle the outfield?
X-Factor: Outside of Goldschmidt and Pollock, the lineup has a lot of question marks. Can David Peralta prove his 17 HR 78 RBI season wasn’t a fluke off of his .368 BABIP. They could benefit from Tomas living up to his contract to help the lineup as well.
Best case: Segura settled into Chase Field nicely. The rotation is everything it is hyped up to be. Goldschmidt has another MVP year and the Diamondbacks contend for the division.
Worst case: Goldschmidt and Pollock are the only real threats in the lineup. Behind the top three, the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation can’t seem to contribute enough and they finish in third place.
San Diego Padres
What’s not to like: Matt Kemp has recovered enough to be a productive player again. They got a nice haul for Kimbrel from Boston. There’s not a ton of positives after last season’s whirlwind of moves blew up.
Yeah, but: Tyson Ross is pretty good but not very consistent still. They’re already trying to trade James Shields and probably Andrew Cashner at some point. They have to play Melvin Upton and signed Alexi Ramirez. They’re hoping Wil Myers fits in at first base and giving the closers job to Fernando Rodney.
X-Factor: If Shields is good enough to convince someone to trade for him (like the Red Sox), they could get (another) nice return and try to build up what was actually a good farm system.
Best case: Corey Spangenberg handles second base nicely in his first full time shot. Ross, Shields and Cashner all pitch well, maybe the Padres trade a few. If not, they probably wind up in third place, maybe second if some other things go wrong for other teams.
Worst case: They don’t even play as well as last season and then they’re probably faced with a front office change, which would be a shame after hiring young and energetic Andy Green.
Colorado Rockies
What’s not to like: Nolan Arenado is the best player no one talks about because he plays in Colorado. While his HR/FB% rose from 11.4 to 18.5, he does play 81 games in Colorado. He slugged .610 at home but also a pretty good .539 on the road, proving he’s the real deal. He’s also a defensive whiz. Carlos Gonzalez stayed healthy last year and played like the CarGo of old. They got a nice haul for Troy Tulowitzki. But most of what’s great about them, is Arenado, CarGo and Charlie Blackmon is a nice player. DJ LeMahieu is also a little underrated.
Yeah, but: Quick, name one of their starting pitchers? Jorge De La Rosa was their best pitcher a year ago, starting 26 games and had a 4.17 ERA. The bullpen now has Jake McGee but outside of that, it’s still pretty iffy.
Best case: Jon Gray recovers from injury and gets some encouraging starts as the organization’s top pitching prospect. Their hitters should be just fine either way, but if a couple young arms come up and show come promise, they could avoid the basement again.
Worst case: They pitch like they always do in Colorado and they slug like they do. Meaning they lose a lot of 8-6 games and finish in last.
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POSTED 03/29/2016 20:29
