Lake County Sentinel
2016 National League Central Preview By Justin Lada
There may not be a tougher division in baseball than the National League Central. While the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds will be focused on how they can contend in 2018 or 2019, the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are all trying to figure out how to win at least 90 games just to avoid one of the Wild Card spots. The Pirates haven’t had the best of luck running into the plus one game but are still talented all around. The Cardinals seem to find a way to win the division no matter whom they lose or who gets hut. The Cubs are here and they’re not going away.
St. Louis Cardinals
What’s not to like: It’s a pretty good run organization for a bunch of hacks. They lost Adam Wainwright for the majority of the season last year and just won 100 games and the division. This year? They’ll try to do it all again sans Lance Lynn (surgery) and John Lackey (defected to division rival Chicago) in the rotation. Wainwright is back and Carlos Martinez is pretty darn good, even if he seems like an injury waiting to happen. Matt Carpenter is pretty good and Kolten Wong continues to look like he’s on the verge of a breakout season.
Yeah, but: For once, their rotation depth (on paper) doesn’t seem endless. But they’ve won in spite of that before. Matt Holliday is showing signs of slowing down. Jhonny Peralta is starting the season hurt and Yadier Molina is slowing offensively due to age and injuries. This is still a pretty good team, but they’re in the same division that had two 90 win Wild Card teams last year, so even a good team may win 88 games and miss the playoffs here.
X-Factor: They lost Jason Heyward to the Cubs as well and they’re hopeful Randal Grichuck is ready for 500 at bats and a big role in the lineup. If he is and takes it well, this lineup is still going to be pretty formidable.
Best case: As usual, they find a way to make the rotation on the back end work and survive injuries and win the division. Maybe THAT’S the Cardinal way.
Worst case: Depth, age and injuries finally derail them. They’re still good enough to win 80 something games regardless, but maybe in this scenario, not good enough to win the division, maybe even a playoff spot.
Chicago Cubs
What’s not to like: Where to start? The lineup has stars throughout. They landed a double whammy to the division by taking Heyward and Lackey from St. Louis. Even if Jake Arrieta ‘regresses’ a little from last year’s Cy Young award winning season, he’ll still be a pretty good ace. Joe Maddon always knows what he’s doing.
Yeah, but: They are counting on a lot of young guys, who all performed just fine a season ago. However, expectations are heavy all around. Arrieta did throw a lot of innings last year. Jon Lester still can’t throw to first base. They do play in a tough division.
X-Factor: If Arrieta proves that he’s capable of being the ace all season gain, the addition of Lackey shores up the one area that looked like it would knock them out of the playoffs last year. The bullpen could be a little more reliable.
Best case: Stop me if you’ve heard this before – but World Series. It’s not World Series or bust, but with this roster, there’s no reason they couldn’t, even shouldn’t be there.
Worst case: Some of their youngsters go through a sophomore slump of sorts. Arrieta has more regression than expected. Lester’s throwing issue becomes more exploited. If the Cardinal’s figure it out again the Cubs could be ticketed for the Wild Card again.
Pittsburgh Pirates
What’s not to like: They’ve got Andrew McCutchen, maybe the best outfield combination in baseball and Gerritt Cole (even if he is mad at them). Ray Searage does a great job with pitchers, go behind Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke and Jon Niese should figure it out. They gave Josh Harrison a permanent home on the diamond finally, so that might help. Mark Melancon is quietly very good.
Yeah, but: Like the other two, they play in the division with what were the two other best teams in baseball a year ago. The rotation is a little iffy on paper, although Tyler Glasnow should be up at some point. Jung Ho Kang had the gruesome leg injury a year ago and the Pirates could use him back sooner than later and healthy. They’re hoping that the John Jaso/Mike Morse platoon at first base works out, even though Jaso has really never played first until this spring. Hey, it worked for Scott Hatteberg.
X-Factor: If Searage can help Niese really prove to be a dependable third starter, the Pirates rotation could be better than the Cardinals and they matchup pretty well, if not better, than them across the diamond.
Best case: No slow start due to injury from McCutchen this year. Kang comes back and hits like he was before he got hurt. The Jaso experiment proves fruitful. Searage works his magic with Niese and others and they win the division.
Worst case: The first base thing doesn’t work out. After Cole and Liriano the rotation doesn’t provide much and they have to settle for the second wild card again or just miss it.
Milwaukee Brewers
What’s not to like: Domingo Santana could be pretty fun. Maybe Orlando Arcia will be up by September? Maybe next year’s draft class will be pretty good. Someone REALLY likes Jonathan Lucroy and gives them a good package for him? This is about it for Brewers fans to look forward to in 2016.
Yeah, but: Sticking with the theme of bad teams wanting to not be too good, a lot of younger players got time last year. Jimmy Nelson was solid last year and likely heads the rotation. Maybe that experience leads to one too many wins? They would be best served trading Lucroy, but that’s a slippery slope from intentionally tanking and needing some recognizable players on the field every day.
X-Factor: Santana was the big piece in the Carlos Gomez deal. He’d make a lot of fans feel good if he showed some promise, especially if they do wind up trading Lucroy.
Best case: Santana is pretty good, they can trade Lucroy for something pretty nice and Arcia comes up in September and proves he’s ready to take over in 2017. And hopefully they still lose about 90 games to pick high in the draft.
Worst case: They trade Lucroy but nothing else on the team is worth watching and they still don’t get a top three pick.
Cincinnati Reds
What’s not to like: They’ve already started the rebuilding process and had rookies pitchers start essentially every game after they dealt Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. They got nice haul’s for both and there should be a few guys in the Cueto deal on the Opening Day roster. Always a good feeling if you’re a rebuilding team if you can actually see the future of the team start on Opening Day.
What’s not to like: It would be ideal if they could unload Brandon Phillips to someone, anyone. And Jay Bruce. At some point, it might make sense to deal Votto too. Homer Bailey?
X-Factor: Brandon Finnegan pitched in the 2014 World Series and hopefully gives Reds fans something to look forward to not that he’s Cincinnati’s property.
Best case: They manage to trade some aging big contracts for something significant.
Worst case: Phillips plays well and keeps rejecting trades.
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POSTED 04/01/2016 21:45
